生存挤压：阶段机器

A squeeze is not just a price drop — it is a psychological trap. When the market falls 30–50%, fear says “sell everything,” hope says “the bottom is close, buy cheap,” and leverage forces you out at the worst price. Most traders sell near the bottom and buy back higher. The fix is not prediction — it is a machine: a set of rules that tells you what to do in each phase.

The six phases

• DRAWDOWN — below the 200-day average and >20% off the peak → flat or minimal; build a shopping list, do not buy yet.
• CAPITULATION — a single day drops >2× recent volatility or drawdown >35% → do nothing; never buy the knife.
• RECOVERY — a confirmed 15–20% bounce off the bottom → buy in three steps: 1/3 now, 1/3 above the 50-day, 1/3 above the 200-day.
• BULL — above the 200-day for 10+ straight days → full deployment; hold while the trend works.
• DISTRIBUTION — 20–25% off a new peak or below the 200-day → sell in steps, mirroring how you bought.
• RANGE — no new high, no stop signals → switch to range tools (channels, compression).

The insurance rule (R3)

退出 when an asset falls 20–25% from its peak 和 trades below its 200-day average. Re-enter only after a 15–20% bounce from the bottom. Two conditions, no opinions. Tested on 14 coins across 56 independent walk-forward windows (real 1-day candles 2019–2026, fees 5 bps per side, no leverage): bear windows averaged −6.9% vs −45.3% for buy-and-hold; bull windows +54.5% vs +117.6%.

The squeeze protocol

Stop out early — the rule fires before the worst of it; that is the whole point of insurance. Do not buy the knife: a falling price is not “cheap,” it is a falling price. Ladder back in thirds on the recovery trigger. And no leverage — it turns a manageable squeeze into an account wipeout.