As of 2026-09-11T05:36:40Z · Live trading: BLOCKED
Research campaign results — hypotheses, not proven edge. All figures are out-of-sample net of fees.
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| Candidate | p (raw) | p (adj.) | PBO | Robust | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| phoenix_zz_slow | 0.001 | 0.057 | 0.34 | 11/15 | no edge |
| phoenix_mrs | 0.996 | 1.000 | 0.46 | 1/15 | no edge |
| jesse_adx_di | 0.893 | 1.000 | 0.54 | 3/15 | no edge |
| phoenix_lsb_m1 | 0.316 | 1.000 | 0.41 | 6/15 | no edge |
| donchian20 | 0.893 | 1.000 | 0.52 | 3/15 | no edge |
| macd_rsi_deda | 0.527 | 1.000 | 0.53 | 5/15 | no edge |
| Candidate | p (raw) | p (adj.) | PBO | Robust | Verdict |
|---|
| Candidate | p (raw) | p (adj.) | PBO | Robust | Verdict |
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| Candidate | p (raw) | p (adj.) | PBO | Robust | Verdict |
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Most trading content shows you winners and hides the search that produced them. We do the opposite. Each candidate above is pre-registered, then run through walk-forward, CSCV probability-of-backtest-overfitting (PBO), Holm-corrected p-values, a permutation null, and realistic costs. When you correct for how many things we tried, almost everything that looked profitable was luck — and we say so (no edge). The one class that holds up lives on /investing. Live trading stays blocked until something genuinely survives. This honesty is the product.
