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CFD Trading Bot on Gate — what the research actually shows

We optimized 8 strategies across 53 traditional-market CFDs (metals, indices, commodities, forex) with real Gate costs, then measured a full forward year the optimizer never saw. This page shows the honest outcome — including everything that failed. Research, not investment advice.

Signed-in users can save any researched setup to Meine Recherche and request a paper run — no payment, no live trading, virtual capital only.

The tier-A basket: real alpha on real samples

Six instruments where the best configuration beat the instrument's own buy&hold over the forward year on 100+ trades. Long and short — that is why falling markets are represented.

InstrumentStrategieBot forward yearMarket same yearBot max drawdownTrades
OrangensaftDonchian breakout · 4h+63.2%−72.2%5.4%100
KakaoMomentum · 4h+35.8%−22.6%8.9%146
Natural Gas (NG)MACD trend · 4h+42.9%−6.1%14.8%346
KaffeeMomentum · 4h+36.7%+6.5%11.7%103
Gold (XAUUSD)Donchian breakout · 1h+29.7%+21.0%6.4%268
CAC 40Bollinger reversion · 1h+11.3%+7.5%9.1%102

Costs charged in every backtest: Gate CFD spread + commission with a 2× safety margin, pessimistic fills, entry at next bar's open. Full ranking of all 53 instruments (including every tier D/E failure) lives in the research console. These six were measured on the first unified grid; the ATR re-check below is the new standard and is still pending for them.

Live forward book — accruing right now, not a backtest

On 2026-07-17 we froze the best validated configuration for each instrument below and started replaying it forward-only on completed bars with the same engine and the same costs as the research above. Nothing is backfilled: the record starts at zero and earns (or loses) in public.

InstrumentStrategieRunning sinceClosed tradesNet (on margin)
CHCUSDrsi_30_70 · 1h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
COCOAdonchian20 · 4h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
COFFEEbb20_2 · 4h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
FRA40bb20_2 · 1h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
GER40bb20_2 · 4h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
HSCHKDrsi_30_70 · 1h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
NGbb20_2 · 4h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
OJUICErsi_30_70 · 1h2026-07-17 1+2.03%
SUGARdonchian20 · 4h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
XAGUSDdonchian20 · 1h2026-07-17 0+0.00%
XAUUSDdonchian20 · 1h2026-07-17 1-0.63%
Basket total2026-07-172 +1.40%

Paper record, updated every 30 minutes on completed bars only. Zero trades means the strategies are waiting for their entries — trend systems trade rarely by design. Net % is per-trade return on margin summed across the basket, before any live frictions we cannot simulate. PAPER_ONLY: this is evidence being collected, not a performance promise.

Audit log: what the latest re-check changed (15–16 July 2026)

We re-ran part of the battery with per-instrument stops scaled to each market's own volatility (0.5–3× ATR14 instead of one shared percent grid — 160 optimizer jobs), and stress-tested the flagship under doubled costs. Numbers move when methodology improves; we publish both sides.

InstrumentWas (unified grid)Now (ATR-corrected)Urteil
AUDUSD+5.9%−0.0%old plus was an artifact of oversized stops
USDJPY+5.3%−1.6%artifact — removed
S&P 500 (US500)+10.0%−0.2%did not reproduce — removed
Other FX majors (6)±2%−2.2…+3.4%no edge — all 8 FX majors dropped from the tradable set
DAX (GER40)+9.0%+8.4%reproduced on both grids — confidence upgraded
Gold (XAUUSD) · cost stress+29.7% base+24.4% at 2× slippage · +26.7% at 2× swaprobust — top-5 wins are only 14% of gross profit
Wide indicator search (RSI 5–200, Donchian 10–200, BB, MACD — 95 genetic jobs)defaults0 of 95 above the noise floorwider search inflates in-sample only; gold's wide "champion" was WORSE out-of-sample (−4.4% vs +24%). Searching harder ≠ earning more

Why publish this: with honest per-instrument stops, three of four re-checked "winners" died — forex on these CFDs is too efficient for our battery and we say so. The survivors (DAX, gold) are stronger claims than before, not weaker. Standing rule going forward: every new campaign runs on ATR-scaled grids only.

Without optimization vs with our optimization

Default strategy settings

+17.1%/year

Worst instrument drawdown 23.7% · one instrument negative

Optimized per instrument

+24.7%/year

Worst instrument drawdown 11.6% · zero negative instruments

The real effect

risk ÷ 2

Optimization's main value is halving drawdowns, not inflating returns — stop-loss, take-profit and holding time tuned per instrument.

What buy & hold actually paid over the last 12 months

Real candles, computed 16 July 2026. This is the honest context every bot claim must be read against: the same year rewarded some assets and punished others — and no one knows next year's column in advance. Long/short research exists precisely because of this.

Vermögenswert12-month buy&holdVermögenswert12-month buy&hold
Silber (XAGUSD)+52.5%Natural Gas (NG)−19.4%
Nasdaq 100+28.7%Kakao−19.0%
Gold (XAUUSD)+20.4%Ethereum (ETH)−44.8%
S&P 500+20.0%Bitcoin (BTC)−45.8%
Kaffee+7.5%Orangensaft−56.2%
DAX 40 (GER40)+3.0%Solana (SOL)−56.3%

Per-asset data coverage varies (247–365 trading days on our candle store); crypto measured on spot USDT pairs. Buy&hold of a falling market is a real loss a bot can short — that is why the tier-A table above shows falling markets with positive bot years.

What a deposit would have done (that same forward year)

Capital split equally across the six tier-A books, bot trades automatically 24/5. Leverage multiplies both profit and drawdown — we cap public scenarios at 3×.

ProfileHebelYear result*$1,000$10,000$100,000Account drawdown*
Conservative (60% deployed)≈ +15%+$150+$1,480+$14,800~5–7%
Base (100% deployed)≈ +25%+$247+$2,470+$24,700~9–12%
Moderate-aggressive≈ +49%+$490+$4,900+$49,000~15–18%
Aggressive≈ +74%+$740+$7,400+$74,000~20–25%+

*One already-elapsed backtest forward year (07.2025–07.2026), scaled to account size — not a forecast. Verified by re-simulation: gold at 1×/2×/3× returned +43/+87/+131% with drawdowns 7.4/14.8/22.2%. Above 3× the drawdown approaches forced-liquidation territory, so we do not show it.

Why this is a subscription to a process, not a magic setting. Our rolling re-optimization studies show tuned parameters stay profitable for a median of 18–40 days. The product is a weekly conveyor: re-optimize → verify on an honest forward window → update the bot. That conveyor is what you see running in the research console.
Read before anything else.
  • Every number here is a backtest on historical data — there is no live track record on these configurations yet. Status: PAPER (virtual capital verification).
  • Best-of-many selection sits below our statistical noise floor — part of the result may be one market year's luck. Forward paper verification comes first, always.
  • Gate CFD fees and swaps are taken from public pages with a 2× safety margin but are not yet verified against live fills.
  • Win rates run 13–40%: losing streaks of 20–28 trades in a row happened in backtests and will happen live. Leverage amplifies them.
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results. Capital at risk, up to full loss. This is research — not investment advice and not an offer.