Our real money, in the open.
This is the actual live experiment on MEXC (SOL_USDT): a small, ring-fenced account, real exchange fees, published as it is. It is an experiment with a verdict the ledger computes itself — and right now that verdict is not “proven”.
58 trades < 100
Started 2026-07-27T09:44:22Z · running 46.1 days. The sample contains zero losing closed trades — every rate you see is optimistic by construction until a losing trade appears.
Null arm: does this beat entering at random?
Same number of trades, same leverage (3×), same taker fees (8.0 bps) — but entries drawn at random over the same period, 500 simulated runs. Both figures below are the sum of per-trade results measured on the margin posted for each trade, so they are directly comparable and are not account returns.
Our arm does not clear the random-entry median — it sits 533.4 points of margin below it. That is not an argument for trading at random: the random arm is far wilder, its worst 5% of runs ending at -153.4% of margin. It is an argument against reading our green curve as skill — over this window the strategy captured less of the move than an unskilled arm did, so the sample carries no evidence of an edge.
Null-arm fill model: next bar open, taker both sides, loss floored at -100% margin; holding window 12 hours, our own average.
Equity curve (wallet value over time)
Closed trades
Download CSV ↓| Entry | Exit | Net, USDT | Return on margin | Worst excursion, % of margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T10:10:28Z | 2026-07-27T11:38:11Z | +0.01 | +0.04% | 0.24% |
| 2026-07-27T11:39:26Z | 2026-07-27T12:44:04Z | +0.03 | +0.06% | -1.68% |
| 2026-07-27T12:45:18Z | 2026-07-27T13:38:09Z | +0.01 | +0.06% | -1.44% |
| 2026-07-27T13:39:23Z | 2026-07-27T13:41:48Z | +0.01 | +0.06% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-27T13:43:02Z | 2026-07-31T01:11:38Z | +0.76 | +0.18% | -9.11% |
| 2026-07-31T01:12:52Z | 2026-08-02T04:27:33Z | +0.97 | +0.19% | -9.94% |
| 2026-08-02T04:28:47Z | 2026-08-02T19:49:47Z | +0.19 | +0.19% | -2.01% |
| 2026-08-02T19:51:01Z | 2026-08-03T18:17:33Z | +0.22 | +0.22% | -6.16% |
| 2026-08-03T18:18:47Z | 2026-08-05T16:31:12Z | +0.30 | +0.20% | -3.85% |
| 2026-08-05T16:32:27Z | 2026-08-07T12:12:01Z | +0.67 | +0.23% | -5.10% |
| 2026-08-07T12:13:15Z | 2026-08-08T03:30:31Z | +0.31 | +0.21% | -2.28% |
| 2026-08-08T03:31:45Z | 2026-08-08T03:58:47Z | +0.10 | +0.19% | -0.16% |
| 2026-08-08T04:00:02Z | 2026-08-08T11:11:44Z | +0.25 | +0.25% | -1.60% |
| 2026-08-08T11:12:59Z | 2026-08-08T14:34:47Z | +0.05 | +0.21% | -0.84% |
| 2026-08-08T14:36:01Z | 2026-08-09T13:16:29Z | +0.05 | +0.21% | -1.26% |
| 2026-08-09T13:17:43Z | 2026-08-09T15:58:27Z | +0.05 | +0.20% | -0.94% |
| 2026-08-09T15:59:41Z | 2026-08-11T22:00:58Z | +0.52 | +0.23% | -5.99% |
| 2026-08-11T22:02:13Z | 2026-08-12T12:17:09Z | +0.10 | +0.19% | -1.96% |
| 2026-08-12T12:18:23Z | 2026-08-17T15:44:12Z | +0.47 | +0.19% | -5.43% |
| 2026-08-17T15:45:27Z | 2026-08-18T11:19:41Z | +0.17 | +0.23% | -2.49% |
| 2026-08-18T11:20:56Z | 2026-08-18T14:29:09Z | +0.05 | +0.21% | -1.18% |
| 2026-08-18T14:30:23Z | 2026-08-19T12:35:51Z | +0.11 | +0.21% | -1.56% |
| 2026-08-19T12:37:06Z | 2026-08-19T12:50:07Z | +0.09 | +0.34% | 0.08% |
| 2026-08-19T12:51:21Z | 2026-08-19T14:49:32Z | +0.06 | +0.23% | -1.15% |
| 2026-08-19T14:50:46Z | 2026-08-19T14:55:31Z | +0.09 | +0.36% | 0.11% |
| 2026-08-19T14:56:45Z | 2026-08-19T15:06:12Z | +0.07 | +0.24% | -0.04% |
| 2026-08-19T15:07:26Z | 2026-08-19T15:28:54Z | +0.10 | +0.19% | -2.28% |
| 2026-08-19T15:30:11Z | 2026-08-19T18:46:27Z | +0.18 | +0.22% | -2.42% |
| 2026-08-19T18:47:42Z | 2026-08-19T20:51:03Z | +0.11 | +0.40% | -0.37% |
| 2026-08-19T20:52:17Z | 2026-08-19T21:05:15Z | +0.10 | +0.35% | 0.14% |
| 2026-08-19T21:06:29Z | 2026-08-19T21:07:47Z | +0.07 | +0.25% | 3.91% |
| 2026-08-19T21:09:00Z | 2026-08-19T21:29:00Z | +0.07 | +0.23% | -0.84% |
| 2026-08-19T21:30:14Z | 2026-08-20T08:07:39Z | +0.38 | +0.22% | -5.46% |
| 2026-08-20T08:08:53Z | 2026-08-20T08:12:28Z | +0.06 | +0.20% | 1.11% |
| 2026-08-20T08:13:42Z | 2026-08-20T16:43:57Z | +0.21 | +0.24% | -2.58% |
| 2026-08-20T16:45:11Z | 2026-08-21T00:19:20Z | +0.20 | +0.34% | -1.99% |
| 2026-08-21T00:20:37Z | 2026-08-21T01:19:18Z | +0.05 | +0.16% | -1.26% |
| 2026-08-21T01:20:33Z | 2026-08-21T01:49:56Z | +0.06 | +0.20% | -1.22% |
| 2026-08-21T01:51:10Z | 2026-08-21T02:39:22Z | +0.18 | +0.30% | -2.01% |
| 2026-08-21T02:40:39Z | 2026-08-21T05:46:07Z | +0.21 | +0.23% | -2.77% |
| 2026-08-21T05:47:21Z | 2026-08-21T06:03:50Z | +0.07 | +0.22% | 0.37% |
| 2026-08-21T06:05:04Z | 2026-08-21T07:16:51Z | +0.16 | +0.18% | -2.52% |
| 2026-08-21T07:18:08Z | 2026-08-21T08:26:15Z | +0.13 | +0.21% | -2.22% |
| 2026-08-21T08:27:30Z | 2026-08-21T08:45:09Z | +0.06 | +0.18% | -0.39% |
| 2026-08-21T08:46:24Z | 2026-08-21T08:59:21Z | +0.07 | +0.24% | 0.58% |
| 2026-08-21T09:00:36Z | 2026-08-21T21:14:14Z | +0.34 | +0.22% | -5.49% |
| 2026-08-21T21:15:29Z | 2026-08-21T21:28:27Z | +0.06 | +0.19% | 0.20% |
| 2026-08-21T21:29:41Z | 2026-08-21T21:48:32Z | +0.07 | +0.23% | 0.06% |
| 2026-08-21T21:49:47Z | 2026-08-21T22:56:44Z | +0.06 | +0.20% | -0.38% |
| 2026-08-21T22:57:58Z | 2026-08-22T02:21:02Z | +0.19 | +0.20% | -3.34% |
| 2026-08-22T02:22:16Z | 2026-08-22T02:42:16Z | +0.08 | +0.24% | -0.22% |
| 2026-08-22T02:43:33Z | 2026-08-22T03:17:37Z | +0.06 | +0.20% | -0.85% |
| 2026-08-22T03:18:52Z | 2026-08-22T03:35:21Z | +0.08 | +0.25% | 0.59% |
| 2026-08-22T03:36:35Z | 2026-08-22T04:29:32Z | +0.17 | +0.26% | -2.04% |
| 2026-08-22T04:30:46Z | 2026-08-22T04:33:11Z | +0.07 | +0.22% | 1.93% |
| 2026-08-22T04:34:28Z | 2026-08-22T04:39:14Z | +0.10 | +0.30% | -0.60% |
| 2026-08-22T04:40:28Z | 2026-08-22T04:42:53Z | +0.09 | +0.28% | 1.91% |
| 2026-08-22T04:44:07Z | 2026-08-24T22:06:59Z | +0.41 | +0.21% | -27.23% |
How each number is computed
- Wallet at start — the equity the ledger's first tick recorded for this account, not a baseline chosen afterwards.
- Equity now — the latest position snapshot, with the unrealised result of any open position included, so an open loser is visible immediately.
- Net result — the sum of closed round-trips after exchange fees, on the user side of the ledger. The fee rebate is listed separately and is already inside this figure.
- Period return — net result divided by wallet at start. It is never annualised on this page.
- Max equity drawdown — the largest peak-to-trough fall of the snapshot curve.
- Worst excursion — per trade, the deepest adverse move while it was open, as a percentage of the margin posted for that trade.
- Ledger verdict — a fixed rule applied to our own numbers, with no room to read it our way: under 100 closed trades it reads insufficient_sample, and a track that fails its null arm reads stop.
What you can check, and what you cannot
You can: download every closed trade as CSV and recompute the net, the win rate and the drawdown yourself; line the equity curve up against SOL_USDT price over the same dates; rebuild the null arm from public candles using the fill model stated above.
You cannot, today: confirm the fills on-chain. This is a perpetual-futures account on a centralised exchange — those trades settle inside MEXC and carry no blockchain transaction id, so a TXID shown next to a futures fill would be pointing at something else. Independent confirmation would need exchange-side read-only access or an audited statement; we have neither yet. Until we do, this page is our own ledger, published unedited, including the parts that do not flatter it.